1. China Near-Surface Air Temperature/Precipitation Forecast

In February 2026, near-surface temperatures in China are expected to exhibit a distinct "Cold East-Warm West" pattern. Significant cold anomalies are projected from northern North China to southern Northeast China. Specifically, eastern Liaoning, southern Jilin, central Inner Mongolia, and parts of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region may experience temperatures more than 1°C below the climatological average. Conversely, western China is forecast to be generally warmer, with notable warming of 1–2°C in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Tibet, and western Sichuan. Some areas may even see temperature increases of 2–4°C. Regarding precipitation, a "Wet North-Dry South" pattern is anticipated. Northern China is expected to experience above-average precipitation, with increases of 20–40% in most parts of Northwest China, Inner Mongolia, and Northeast China, while some regions may even exceed 40% above average. In contrast, North China, the Huang-Huai region, and most southern areas are likely to experience reduced precipitation, with decreases of around 20%. Notably, Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Guangxi may experience a more than 40% reduction in precipitation, raising potential drought risks.

It is essential to monitor the possibility of cold waves and prepare accordingly for cold weather emergencies. Meanwhile, significantly reduced rainfall in southwestern and southern China could pose challenges to agriculture and water resource management, necessitating proactive drought preparedness measures.

2. Global Near-Surface Air/Sea Surface Temperature Forecast

Globally, the La Niña phenomenon is expected to weaken significantly. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in most of the eastern equatorial Pacific are projected to be 0.2–0.5°C below average. However, due to lagged teleconnections from the previous La Niña event, Europe and Central Asia are likely to remain noticeably colder. Meanwhile, under the influence of a positive Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, Canada and the western United States are expected to be significantly warmer, while the U.S. East Coast may experience cooler conditions. As La Niña continues to weaken, its lingering teleconnection impacts on the global climate pattern require close attention.

3. Global Atmospheric Rivers Forecast

Using the PanLu2.0 Atmospheric River Identification and Tracking Algorithm developed by our team, January 2026 atmospheric river (AR) activity has been globally identified. According to the forecast of global atmospheric river frequency, there is a high probability of high-level atmospheric river events occurring in the North Atlantic region, with strong consistency across model ensembles. In the North Pacific region, atmospheric river events in February are expected to be at a moderate level. Caution should be taken regarding potential disasters caused by heavy rainfall (or snowfall) in European countries such as Spain and France, as well as along the west coast of North America.

These forecasts are derived from the objective prediction methods of the SEPRESS team. The associated products represent scientific and technological outcomes intended for technical reference in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. They should not be used as the sole basis for decision-making. Further tracking and updated forecasts are strongly recommended.

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The above monthly TC outlook is based on the SEPRESS Global Climate Seamless Prediction System. SEPRESS, or Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environments, is a global initiative led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) that translates scientific advancements in weather-to-climate (or, subseasonal-to-seasonal) prediction into practical, tailored solutions to enhance global climate resilience and sustainability. The initiative, endorsed by UNESCO, aims to bridge the gap between science and society by fostering partnerships and delivering actionable outcomes to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The SEPRESS team comprises hydrometeorologists and modelers from the HKUST, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Beijing Normal University.

Text and Figures contributed by: LIU Can, SONG Yurong, LI Shentong, LIU Anling, TANG Yao