Driven by the ongoing El Niño event, surface air temperatures across China are projected to exhibit widespread positive anomalies in November 2026. With the exception of the Tibet Autonomous Region, Heilongjiang, and eastern Jilin, which are expected to experience negative temperature anomalies, the majority of the country will undergo anomalous warming. Notably, positive anomalies in Guangxi, Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang will exceed 1.0°C, with localized warming surpassing 1.5°C.

Regions of positive precipitation anomalies largely spatially coincide with areas of elevated temperatures. Above-average precipitation is projected nationwide, excluding central and western Tibet, the western Sichuan Plateau, southern Qinghai, and northeastern Inner Mongolia. Specifically, central China, most of eastern China, and western South China will experience positive precipitation anomalies of 40%–80% relative to the climatological baseline, whereas northern North China and Northeast China will remain near climatology.

Figure 1. Predicted surface air temperature anomalies in China and surrounding regions for November 2026.
Figure 2. Predicted precipitation anomaly percentages in China and surrounding regions for November 2026.

In November 2026, the majority of northern China is projected to face moderate-to-high forest and grassland fire risk, whereas southern China will primarily exhibit low fire risk. Specifically, the central and western parts of Sichuan, northern Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Tibet, eastern Inner Mongolia, central Heilongjiang, southeastern Jilin, and eastern Liaoning are projected to have moderate-to-high forest and grassland fire risk levels.

Figure 3. Predicted forest and grassland fire risk levels in China for November 2026 (snow-covered areas in winter have been excluded).

Regarding extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, in November 2026, frequencies are projected to exceed the climatological mean over the eastern North Pacific, central North Atlantic, the region from the northern Black Sea coast to the Caspian Sea and western Kazakhstan, as well as from central Siberia and the Sea of Okhotsk to the Kamchatka Peninsula. Notably, positive anomalies exceeding 40% are expected in the eastern North Pacific and central North Atlantic. Conversely, cyclone frequencies will be below average over the North American continent, coastal Europe, and the low-latitude waters of the central and western North Pacific.

For explosive extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, the frequency of explosive cyclones over most of the North Pacific and the central North Atlantic is expected to be significantly higher than the climatological norm in November 2026. Eastern Canada (the Labrador Peninsula and the ocean east of Newfoundland) and Northern Europe (the Scandinavian Peninsula) will see slightly below-average frequencies, while the northern Barents Sea will experience slightly above-average frequencies.

The active center of the Northeast Cold Vortex is expected to shift northward in November 2026. Positive frequency anomalies exceeding 40% are projected over central and northern Heilongjiang and northeastern Inner Mongolia, while a reduction of over 30% is anticipated across Liaoning, most of Jilin, southeastern Inner Mongolia, and the central-northern Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Figure 4. Predicted frequency and anomaly of extratropical cyclone events in the Northern Hemisphere for November 2026.
Figure 5. Predicted frequency and anomaly of explosive cyclone events in the Northern Hemisphere for November 2026.
Figure 6. Predicted frequency and anomaly of Northeast Cold Vortex events for November 2026.

Globally, land surface temperatures in November 2026 will exhibit predominantly positive anomalies, punctuated by localized negative anomalies. Significant warming is expected over northern North America, northern Eurasia, parts of the Arctic Ocean, northern South America, and the Indochina Peninsula, with localized positive anomalies of 2–4°C over central-northern Canada and the Barents-Kara Sea region. In contrast, temperatures in central-southern Europe to the Mediterranean coast, northeastern North Africa, the Russian Far East, the central and southern Tibetan Plateau, southwestern North America, and southern South America will generally be close to normal or locally 1–2°C below average.

Global precipitation patterns will exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity, reflecting El Niño-driven teleconnections. The equatorial central and eastern Pacific, central-southern North America, central-eastern China to the northern Indochina Peninsula, Central Asia, southeastern South America, and parts of southern Africa will receive 40%–80% more precipitation than normal. Conversely, the equatorial western Pacific, the southern Maritime Continent to central-western Australia, central-northern South America, the Arabian Peninsula to most of North Africa, and the northwestern Indian subcontinent will experience a significant precipitation deficit of 40%–80%.

Figure 7. Predicted global surface air temperature anomalies for November 2026.
Figure 8. Predicted global precipitation anomaly percentages for November 2026.

Global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions indicate that in November 2026, positive SST anomalies in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will generally reach 2.0–3.0°C, with the core region exceeding 3.0°C, indicating the continuous intensification of a strong El Niño event.

Figure 9. Predicted global sea surface temperature anomalies for November 2026.

Based on the team's independently developed atmospheric river identification and tracking algorithm, PanLu2.0, global atmospheric rivers for November 2026 were extracted (Figure 10). Moderate-to-high frequency atmospheric rivers exhibit a heightened probability of occurrence over the North Pacific (from Japan to Alaska), the North Atlantic, and the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, with ensemble agreement in these regions reaching 70%–80%.

Figure 10. Predicted monthly frequency outlook and moderate-to-high level probability map of global atmospheric rivers for November 2026.

Regarding global forest and grassland fire risk, in November 2026, parts of southern Canada, northwestern South America, western Russia, central and eastern Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Europe, and Southeast Asia are projected to be at high risk.

Figure 11. Predicted global forest and grassland fire risk levels for November 2026 (snow-covered areas in winter have been excluded).

Regarding snow cover, in November 2026, Eurasian snow cover will exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity: above-average snow cover is projected for northern Siberia, parts of central Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau, while below-average snow cover is expected across central-southern Siberia and northern Europe. In North America, Alaska, the northern Canadian archipelago, and parts of northeastern Canada will experience above-average snow cover, whereas most other regions will see below-average snow cover.

Figure 12. Predicted global snow cover for November 2026.

Reference:

Pan, Y., Yang, J., Yao, Q., et al. (2024). How well do multi-fire danger rating indices represent China forest fire variations across multi-time scales. Environmental Research Letters, 19, 044002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2d3d.

Pan, Y., Yang, J., Lu, M., et al. (2025). Bridging the "Last-mile Gap" in Climate Services Delivery: A Dynamical-Al Hybrid Framework for Next-Month Wildfire Danger Prediction and Emergency Action. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-5091-4.

These forecasts are derived from the objective prediction methods of the SEPRESS team. The associated products represent scientific and technological outcomes intended for technical reference in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. They should not be used as the sole basis for decision-making. Further tracking and updated forecasts from official agencies are strongly recommended.

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The above monthly TC outlook is based on the SEPRESS Global Climate Seamless Prediction System. SEPRESS, or Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environments, is a global initiative led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) that translates scientific advancements in weather-to-climate (or, subseasonal-to-seasonal) prediction into practical, tailored solutions to enhance global climate resilience and sustainability. The initiative, endorsed by UNESCO, aims to bridge the gap between science and society by fostering partnerships and delivering actionable outcomes to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The SEPRESS team comprises hydrometeorologists and modelers from the HKUST, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Beijing Normal University.

Text and Figures contributed by: MAO Jiongren, QIAN Siyu, SONG Yurong, ZHOU Qinyao, LI Shentong, ZHANG Shiyu