In May 2026, China's surface temperature will be characterized by an overall warm pattern with localized cooler areas. Temperatures in Shandong, southern Hebei, southwestern Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, northern Gansu, northeastern Xinjiang, western Tibet, Jiangsu, northern Anhui, and Hubei are expected to be significantly higher by 1–2°C, and in western Tibet, the temperature increase can reach up to 4°C, while most other southern regions will range from near-normal to slightly warm. In contrast, Heilongjiang, eastern Inner Mongolia, northeastern Jilin, parts of eastern Tibet, parts of western Xinjiang, and parts of Qinghai will experience temperatures ranging from near-normal to lower than usual. Regarding precipitation, China is expected to see an overall deficit with a distribution pattern of more in the north and less in the south, and more in the east and west with less in the middle. Most of Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia will see significantly less rainfall, with some areas could face deficits of over 50%, leading to a high risk of meteorological drought.

Global near-surface temperatures will predominantly be warmer, especially in high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere where northern Siberia and northern North America may see anomalies as high as 6°C. Global sea surface temperature forecasts indicate that the equatorial eastern Pacific will continue to warm with anomalies reaching 0.5-1°C, suggesting a strong potential for the development of a strong El Niño. This will result in significant precipitation disparities, with more rainfall in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and southern Eurasia, but significantly less in the western Pacific low latitudes, Australia, and northern Africa.

Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is expected to be frequent in formation but with more eastward paths and fewer landfalls.Tropical cyclone tracks are predicted to be concentrated in the eastern part of the basin (>10 % to 90 %) rather than along the coastal areas, especially the coastal region of China near the South China Sea, which will experience lower density, with density anomalies ranging from -10% to -90% below normal. Due to the influence of the eastward paths, while the formation frequency is predicted to be 68.7% higher than normal, the number of tropical cyclone landing in China is expected to decrease by 49.0%. 

Based on the PanLu 2.0 algorithm, moderate-to-high-level atmospheric rivers are highly probable in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, affecting areas including southeastern China, southern Japan, and the eastern United States.

These forecasts are derived from the objective prediction methods of the SEPRESS team. The associated products represent scientific and technological outcomes intended for technical reference in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. They should not be used as the sole basis for decision-making. Further tracking and updated forecasts are strongly recommended.

——————————

The above monthly TC outlook is based on the SEPRESS Global Climate Seamless Prediction System. SEPRESS, or Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environments, is a global initiative led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) that translates scientific advancements in weather-to-climate (or, subseasonal-to-seasonal) prediction into practical, tailored solutions to enhance global climate resilience and sustainability. The initiative, endorsed by UNESCO, aims to bridge the gap between science and society by fostering partnerships and delivering actionable outcomes to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The SEPRESS team comprises hydrometeorologists and modelers from the HKUST, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Beijing Normal University.

Text and Figures contributed by: QIAN Siyu, Dipendra LAMICHHANE, SONG Yurong, ZHOU Qinyao